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There is a good deal of money to be obtained this week DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the main tournament. I’ll be going heavier than normal this week following the significant GPP prizes, and that I will play less cash games than normal. This is the first time we have seen a 30k top prize, therefore I believe it’s worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main occasion with Max Holloway pulling out of this fight against Brian Ortega, thus we are now down to 11 fights and we should see a great deal of ties with this card together with all the popular lineups. If you’re pursuing that $30K then you’ll want to attempt to be a little different with your lineup so that you can separate yourself from the rest of the field. With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy as well as my fade of this week.
Money Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is way off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is $1,400 less than his competitor, Mike Perry. On the gambling line, Felder is your -150 favorite. That’s just too much line value to pass on in money games which makes Felder that the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this fight, he must be highly owned that it won’t even hurt your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the highest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it may kill your lineup, so maybe think about avoiding the chalk there in the event that you can. But with this crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy pick for the cash game play of this week.
GPP drama of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this seems a little weird since I literally just picked Paul Felder because my cash play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we do not care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it doesn’t damage your lineup because only 10 percent of lineups didn’t have him and you only have to be top ~50% of the field to cash in money games. In GPPs, I’m imagining Felder will be over 50% owned. If he loses, that’s half of the field that’s dead with no shot at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will be less than 20% owned, and closer to 10% simply due to this mispriced line. If Felder loses and kills off 50% of lineups, then you get a win with the low owned guy to put you in a much better location of a solo 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the power to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his branch. Can it really shock you much if Perry could KO him in this battle? In GPPs, we’re looking for that boom or bust play and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of the week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis could have been a -500 favorite over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 decades before, but now we get a evaporating Pettis as an underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I believe Pettis can keep this fight standing for many the fight which will give him a huge advantage. He is also dangerous on the ground himself and if he is taken down I think he is going to be able to get up if he is not able to acquire a submission of his own. In case Pettis can acquire a decision then I presume he will pay his off DK price tag and is going to be a good underdog to utilize so it is possible to save salary on your lineups. I can also see this battle ending from Pettis falling Chiesa with a body kick and if that happens he will likely be on the winning lineup when he can make it happen in around 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think that he wins the fight, but I do not see him paying off that large price . He doesn’t fight at a heavy pace and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his past 4 wins and the floor is where he’ll have his biggest advantage in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I need at least 91 points out of him to cover that much. I’d rather pay up for the guys higher priced compared to Assuncao, or go down to Vannata or Miocic. I will have 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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