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This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card with 2 title fights in Toronto, Canada. We’re back to using PPV sized contests on DraftKings this week and there are some solid GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance using $25,000 to 1st place. These are always my favorite contests to chase so I will be taking some shots in that. Other than that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry maximum & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games. With that said, here are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ may be the simplest cash game punt of time at $6.8k. The line for Fight Goes To Decision is now -195 and if we’re getting 5-rounds from JJ with the striking volume she puts out then we have a solid floor there also and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At that price tag she allows you to pay up for some heavy favorites and when we could get 4 other spots to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we’ll be sitting very pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Does Not Go To Decision is presently lined at -495 with this battle. The most probable outcome is that someone in this struggle gets knocked out within 15-minutes. With that knock-out probably comes at least one 10-point dip down. If this can be in the 1st round, then you’re currently at 100-points even if it’s just the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that’s more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place in a GPP. Thiago is your favorite in this fight and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so he can not have much time at the match left. I think we role with the favorite here and toss into our GPP lineups and then wait for the fireworks.
Underdog drama of this week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of this week due to his wrestling/grappling possible. I believe he is a live underdog here. Lopez lost his last 2 fights by knockout, so that’s really what I would worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I believe we’ve got a good floor here at $7.3k even if this fight does stay standing because I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is most likely the better wrestler of the two though and I think he lands multiple takedowns in this battle and may win a decision using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57% precision, and if he is getting pieced up on the feet I am sure he is going to be going for even more than this. At $7.3k I believe Lopez makes for a good play in most formats and that I believe he has a split decision win here as the street underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week , but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I don’t believe she could win, since she for certain can, and I think she does. But I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I believe we would need a complete from her in this fight to receive 10x that wages and I believe that is quite unlikely to happen. Or, she will need FightMetric to rely all of her screams as significant strikes. The maximum Chookagian has scored in a UFC fight so far in her career is 83 DK points which was against Irene Aldana who places a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here then that still wouldn’t be enough here to place her in the winning lineup at her 8.7k price label. I think if you’re earning 20 or less lineups this Saturday you can safely fade Chookagian and when she’s a triumph it should not hurt much.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown each fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my select forecasts, you’ll find that for only $7.99 on this link below:
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