الخميس ٢٥ يوليو ٢٠١٩
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card at Brazil. DraftKings has some solid competitions for us to acquire a lot of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $150k being paid out. They also have a brand new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to receive my 3rd chair this week to maximum it if I could. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a handful of entries at that $30k decoration, then I will likely have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let us get into a couple plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Money Game play of the week — Raoni Barcelos — $9,600
Barcelos is the cash game play on for me . On the gambling line he is now -1100 and he is -206 to win ITD. He is also +110 to win in round 1. He is my favorite play on the plank, the only real issue is being able to afford him. For money games, I will for sure match him . For GPPs it’s going to be more difficult to have 6 wins paying up for his massive salary, but I like him there as well. I simply won’t make it a priority for him into those tournament lineups, but money I need that -1100 in my team to get a secure win.
GPP play of this week — Ryan Spann — $8,800
This is a battle I’d like to target. My favorite drama is Spann but Little Nog is in play also. The line for FDGTD is -280 and I believe Spann could win via KO or sub, and it might be 1st round as well. I think he could compete with the $9k fighters and he is a man that kicks them off the 1st place lineup. Little Nog is the better boxer though and Spann does not have a fantastic chin himself, so that I really could see Nog winning through KO. I don’t think that’s likely, so that I will not be thick on him, but he can make my player pool. Spann is a man I believe is in play in all formats and that I will attempt to be overweight on him. It’s more of a grin on Small Nog at this time, but I don’t see this fight going all 3-rounds and that I enjoy Spann to find the win.
Underdog play of the week — Alex Volkanovski — $7,800
On DraftKings, I expect Volkanovski to be very chalky and rightfully so. He’s my preferred play in this battle and his previous scores pretty much make him a man you can not fade if you’re MMEing. I really don’t see him using the ceiling that he did in his past fights vs Aldo, but those numbers are hard to dismiss. His 6 UFC wins have each totaled over 100 DK points. From most recent fight to his debut, all these are his DK scores: 107, 100, 129, 116, 107, and 115. That is pretty wonderful. I think he has a good chance of upsetting the legend and maybe getting a finish for another score. I don’t think Aldo is a great matchup for him to demonstrate that 100+ point ceiling however at $7.8k we don’t need that lots of points. I believe IF he wins, he easily pays off that wages.
Fade of the week — Luana Carolina — $8,900
There’s no way I am paying $8.9k for Carolina. She’s the fade of the week and if it disturbs me then it burns me. I really don’t see that being true though even if she wins. I expect this struggle to stay standing and that I don’t see her striking at a pace to pay off her price tag without getting a finish. I don’t believe she gets that finish so even if she wins I believe she scores closer to 75 DK points and at her wages that won’t end up to the optimal lineup. Even if I create 150 lineups this week I will not receive any vulnerability to Carolina.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 76-45 for +260.95 (+$26,095) since May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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