السبت ٥ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩
This weekend we’ve got a 13-fight card after that extended 3-week break. I am excited to have UFC back and that I am ready to win some money on Saturday. The card will take place in Lincoln, Nebraska and there are no fighters creating their UFC introduction so it’s always nice once you’re already acquainted with all the fighters on the card. Because this is a Fight Night card, the DraftKings competitions are not the best, but there is still a great deal of money to be won. I will personally be chasing the large $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the $5 & $10 Qualifiers. The majority of my investment will be in cash games, largely H2Hs, but I will be taking multiple shots at those huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I enjoy this week as well as my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Stack (James Vick $8,600 AND Justin Gaethje $7,600)
This is the way I will be starting my money lineup. I will put in Vick and Gaethje then figure the rest out from there. Any battle Gaethje is in is filled with activity and his three UFC fights have been Fight Of The Year kind conflicts. Those kinds of fights are great for DraftKings. Notably cash games because we can lock in a win and receive all the points in the best battle on the card. Normally 4 wins will find the job done in money games and we’ll get over 100 points with this battle. But with that win locked in, we just have to find 3 other people we feel great about.
GPP play of this week — Bryan Barberena ($9,500)
It’s tough to need to pay $9.5k for a man like Barberena when you can just pay an extra $200 to get a -1000 preferred in Anders. However, I believe that is what most people will do and that’s what makes Barberena a fantastic GPP play. I believe we’ll get him at a somewhat lower ownership as a consequence of his massive salary, and he’s got a very good shot at obtaining a 1st round triumph. If he can find a 1st round KO then he’ll have 100 points so he’ll pay off that high salary. If you believe Ellenberger is completely faded, then I believe that you should get some Barberena in your lineups. His ITD lineup is -170 and Ellenberger resembles he is a shell of his older self. I think Barberena does pick up an end in this struggle so that I will throw him some GPPs and expect he is beneath owned.
Underdog play of the week — Andre Fili ($7,500)
This is merely the effortless value play of this week. Presently, Fili is the betting popular at -115 over Michael Johnson in +105. However, MJ is $8.7k on DraftKings and Fili is just $7.5k. I love taking that value when it’s available so that I think he is in play in most formats. He’ll be popular in tournaments with all the value we’re getting on himbut I am willing to consume that chalk and I don’t want to get burnt by entirely fading that value. I really do think this is the toughest struggle on the card to phone, but when Fili keeps with his wrestling I think he will have a fantastic shot at winning this battle. If the fight stays standing for 15-minutes, I would prefer MJ but not by a good deal. At $7.5k we do not need a huge score from Fili so any win will likely do just fine. I am not going to pass on this respect and I think he’s the simple underdog of this week on DK.
Fade of this week — Drew Dober ($8,900)
This may just be my personal bias but I am not going to have Drew Dober in any of my main ~20 GPP lineups. Nor will I have him in my cash lineup. Dober has just went for takedowns in 1 of his UFC fights so he’s mainly just seeking to strike. I think that this is going to be a striking battle also and I think it’s going to be nearer than the odds signal. At $8.9k I think we’ll need a finish from him to end up on the winning GPP lineup and that I really don’t see that occurring. Should you believe Dober can find a KO, then you should be enjoying him. I will just be paying up elsewhere because I am not sure he could get that complete and I would not be amazed if he lost the fight. I will say that I never look to utilize Dober at DraftKings, so I could get burned again here but I will stick with my Dober fade and he will be my fade of the week to get UFC Lincoln.
If you would like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each struggle, my personal strategies & suggestions, and my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below: